The Global Economic Impact of Terrorism Was Us$33 Billion in 2018, a Decrease of 38 % from 2017

• Published Month : Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 11:00 am

The decline in terrorism has also been accompanied by a reduction in the global economic impact of terrorism, which fell 38 percent to $ 33 billion in 2018. In comparison to other forms of violence such as murder, armed conflict and military spending, terrorism accounts for a small percentage of the total global cost of violence, which amounted to $ 14.1 trillion in 2018. However, the actual economic impact of terrorism is likely to be much higher, as these figures do not take into account the indirect impact on business, investment and the costs of security agencies in the fight against terrorism.

According to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) of 2019, deaths from terrorism fell for the fourth consecutive year after peaking in 2014. The number of deaths has fallen by 52 percent since 2014, falling from 33,555 to 15,952. Now in its seventh year, the annual Global Terrorism Index, developed by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), provides the most comprehensive resource on global terror trends.

The total number of deaths fell by more than 15 percent in 2018, with the largest declines in Iraq and Somalia due to the Islamic State's defeat in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq and US- led air strikes on Al-Shabaab , The decline in deaths was also reflected in the country values: 98 countries showed an improvement, while 40 countries showed a deterioration. This is the highest number of countries that have seen an improvement since 2004 over the previous year.

While the GTI found that the effects of terrorism are diminishing, it also shows that terrorism is still widespread and increasing, with 71 countries reporting at least one death. This is the second highest number since the beginning of the century.

• The number of deaths from terrorism increased from 67 to 71 in 2018.
• Afghanistan recorded the largest increase in terrorist deaths, up 59 percent over the previous year, and is now at the top of the index.
• For the first time since 2003, Iraq was not the country most affected by terrorism.
• Apart from Afghanistan , only three other countries - Nigeria , Mali and Mozambique - registered a significant increase in deaths from terrorism in 2018 . Each of these countries had more than 100 additional deaths.
• South Asia has had the biggest impact of terrorism since 2002, while Central America and the Caribbean region had the least impact.

Steve Killelea , Executive Chairman of the IEP, explains the findings: "IEP research concludes that conflict and state terror are the main causes of terrorism. In 2018, over 95 percent of deaths from terrorism occurred in countries that were already involved in a conflict. In combination with countries with high political terror, the number rises to over 99 percent. Of the 10 countries most affected by terrorism *, all were involved in at least one violent conflict last year. "

For North America, Western Europe and Oceania, the danger of right-wing political terrorism has increased over the past five years, with 19 countries affected by attacks during this period. In these regions, attacks by far-right groups or individuals increased by 320 percent between 2014 and 2018. This trend continued into 2019, with 77 deaths from the beginning of the year to the end of September due to extreme right-wing terrorism. In contrast to Islamist terrorism, none of the perpetrators claimed to be a member of an organized terrorist group in 2018, making it difficult for security organizations to prevent such attacks.

The rise of terrorist activity in Afghanistan , coupled with the decline in conflict in Syria and Iraq, has led the Taliban to overtake ISIL in 2018 as the deadliest terrorist group in the world. The number of deaths attributed to the Taliban rose by nearly 71 percent to 6,103 and accounted for 38 percent of all deaths worldwide. By contrast, deaths attributed to ISIL worldwide fell by almost 70 percent from 4,350 in 2017 to 1,328 in 2018.

However, some ISIL constituents have seen an increase in terrorist activity. The ISIL's Khorasan Chapter was the fourth deadliest terrorist group in 2018, with more than a thousand deaths, with the majority of these deaths taking place in Afghanistan . There were a total of thirteen groups or movements, each killing more than one hundred people in 2018.

Women's participation in terrorism has also increased, although it still accounts for a small percentage of all attacks. In the last five years, the trend has intensified: Between 2013 and 2018, the number of female suicide bombers rose by 450 percent. By contrast, male suicide bombers fell 47 percent over the same period. Most of this increase is attributed to Boko Haram, who has accounted for nearly 80 percent of all female suicide bombers in the past five years.

In Europe, the number of deaths from terrorism fell for the second year in a row from over two hundred in 2017 to 62 in 2018. Only two attacks killed five or more people.

Steve Killelea explains: "The collapse of ISIL in Syria and Iraq was one of the factors that enabled Western Europe to record the lowest number of incidents since 2012. There were no deaths attributed to this group in 2018. However, the situation remains volatile as large parts of Syria are controversial and many smaller groups sympathizing with the ISIL philosophies are active. More Islamist attacks in Europe are possible. "

The decline in terrorism has also been accompanied by a reduction in the global economic impact of terrorism, which fell 38 percent to $ 33 billion in 2018. In comparison to other forms of violence such as murder, armed conflict and military spending, terrorism accounts for a small percentage of the total global cost of violence, which amounted to $ 14.1 trillion in 2018. However, the actual economic impact of terrorism is likely to be much higher, as these figures do not take into account the indirect impact on business, investment and the costs of security agencies in the fight against terrorism.