Iran would need oil at $195 a barrel next year to balance budget: IMF

  • Published Month : Monday, 28 Oct 2019 02:21 pm

A major reason for this are the new sanctions imposed by Washington in 2018

Hurt by tighter U.S. sanctions, Iran - a key member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - is expected to have a fiscal deficit of 4.5% this year and 5.1% next year, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on Monday.

On Friday, international benchmark Brent crude closed trading at just above $62 a barrel.

Iran saw its oil revenues surge after a 2015 nuclear pact agreed with six major powers ended a sanctions regime imposed three years earlier over its disputed nuclear program.

But new sanctions brought in after U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from that deal in 2018 are the most painful imposed by Washington.

Iran’s economy is expected to shrink by 9.5% this year, compared to a prior estimate of a 6% contraction, the IMF has said, but real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to be flat next year.

“The estimate is that ... sanctions that were reintroduced last year and tightened this year, next year will not have an additional impact,” Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, told Reuters.

The IMF forecast Iran’s exports of goods and services to drop to $60.3 billion this year from $103.2 billion last year, and to fall further to $55.5 billion in 2020.

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