U.S. bank lobby economist predicts for global rate soon

Investors battered by the breathtaking drop in global stock markets on coronavirus fears are ever more convinced the world’s big central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will soon step in to try to quell the storm.

Against that, the top economist for the U.S. bank lobby - a former Fed insider - issued a remarkably specific prediction on Sunday that the rescue is nigh.

In a blog titled "Don't keep your powder dry" here, Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute who worked on the Fed's responses to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, predicted:** A coordinated global interest rate cut by the top central banks, such as the one executed at the height of the crisis in October 2008 by the Fed and five other central banks. They will possibly include in this action the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetory Authority, the two banks whose economies have so far suffered most from the outbreak.

** It will happen this Wednesday, March 4. Nelson noted that the previous big coordinated actions in December 2007, October 2008 and November 2011 all occurred on a Wednesday.

** It will happen before the U.S. stock market opens, either 7 a.m. or 8 a.m. ET (1200 or 1300 GMT).

** It will be big: half a percentage point at least. The Fed’s current benchmark lending rate is set in a range of 1.50-1.75%, and rate futures markets are pricing in a cut of at least a quarter percentage point at the Fed’s next scheduled meeting March 17-18. “The only way to get a positive market reaction is to deliver more than expected,” he wrote.

Read here